In order to increase production volume through seeds and fertilizer in Sub-Saharan Africa,
we think the greatest impact will be where there is sufficient rainfall, population density, and cultivable land.
Focus on these countries:
In Rwanda, the potential to improve production per smallholder farmer is high. Rwanda is a low-income country with a food-deficit challenge and ranks 167 (out of 187) on the UNDP Human Development Index. Annual costs associated with child undernutrition are estimated at 11.5% of GDP or $820 million annually.
| Rainfall | Pop. Density | Cultivable Land | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rwanda | 1212mm | 439 pop/km2 | 59.6% |
| Burundi | 1274mm | 359 pop/km2 | 51.4% |
| Nigeria | 1150mm | 175 pop/km2 | 43.1% |
| Sierra Leone | 2526mm | 80 pop/km2 | 17.2% |
| Uganda | 1180mm | 170 pop/km2 | 44.8% |
| Region | 1116mm | 94 pop/km2 | 9.6% |
| Sudan | 416mm | 19 pop/km2 | 8% |
Sudan is not a good choice for the desired strategy and impact. Even though it has significant cultivable land area, people are spread over a vast area which makes logistics difficult. This does not consider conflict or instability.
For this strategy and desired impact, we identified three metrics that are good initial indicators of success.
Population Density: Higher concentrations of people can simplify logistical challenges around distribution of inputs and indicate the presence of physical markets and customer demand.
Average Rainfall: Without appropriate rainfall, the physical success of seeds and fertilizers is impossible. Secondary intervention strategies such as irrigation inputs may be required in locations which do not experience regular precipitation.
Cultivable Land: Combined with other indicators, overall cultivable land data helps ensure that the prospective program site is able to absorb farming activities. This data point does not include lands available only for pastures.